by Guess » Mon May 08, 2017 11:58 pm
hellotehe wrote:Guest wrote:What're the chances of tomorrow being the date?
1/365
I think the chances are slightly better than that. Someone posted past award notification dates and the latest done before was early June (6th?). Going with that, there is a 1/21 chance of tomorrow being The Day (assuming a uniform distribution, we don't count weekends and I may have added wrong). They could always send us another email punting the award date till the beginning of June. I don't think they can wait longer than that because the awardees need to be able to visit their SF. If they are really going to tell us "by the beginning of May" there can be but only so many interpretations of the beginning of a month: (1) the first week (2) within the first 10 days (3) or before the month is half way over. Any other interpretation is a lie. We already know (1) is wrong. (2) seems more reasonable than (3), but I am biased. Hence, the next least optimistic probability is about 1/5 (assuming uniform) which isn't too bad.
[quote="hellotehe"][quote="Guest"]What're the chances of tomorrow being the date?[/quote]
1/365[/quote]
I think the chances are slightly better than that. Someone posted past award notification dates and the latest done before was early June (6th?). Going with that, there is a 1/21 chance of tomorrow being The Day (assuming a uniform distribution, we don't count weekends and I may have added wrong). They could always send us another email punting the award date till the beginning of June. I don't think they can wait longer than that because the awardees need to be able to visit their SF. If they are really going to tell us "by the beginning of May" there can be but only so many interpretations of the beginning of a month: (1) the first week (2) within the first 10 days (3) or before the month is half way over. Any other interpretation is a lie. We already know (1) is wrong. (2) seems more reasonable than (3), but I am biased. Hence, the next least optimistic probability is about 1/5 (assuming uniform) which isn't too bad.